CategoryMedia and Press

A Pint of Guinness

A Porsche Cayenne achieved a new GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ title on the 21st of April, 2017, by towing an Airbus A380 over a distance of 42-meters. This feat by Porsche’s Cayenne beats the previous record for ‘heaviest aircraft to be towed by a production car’ by a margin of 115-tons.

Porsche is now a Guinness World Record holder. Cayenne is a Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) manufactured by Porsche. The German SUV is credited with pulling the heaviest aircraft at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport.

A Cayenne S Diesel, with a 4.1-liter V8 twin-turbo engine producing 380bhp, and more importantly, 850Nm of torque, was able to tug a colossal, 285 ton, 516 seat, 73 meters long Airbus A380 supplied by Air France over a distance of 42 meters. The achievement was then repeated by the Porsche Cayenne Turbo S, cementing Porsche firmly in the record books, whether the car be gasoline or diesel.

Air France devoted one of its fleet of ten A380 aircrafts to the project and the contrast between the two machines was striking. The Cayenne (measuring 4.8-meters in length) was connected to the most sophisticated and largest (73-meters) passenger aircraft in the world via a special towing attachment that sat on the Cayenne’s standard tow bar.

The previous Guinness World Record for heaviest aircraft pulled by a production car was set back in 2013 by a Nissan Patrol, which managed to tow an airplane weighing 170 tons. 

Pravin Patel, Adjudicator to the GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS attempt: “I’ve verified some amazing record attempts during my time as a GUINNESS WORLD RECORD adjudicator – watching a Porsche Cayenne tow one of the largest aircrafts in the world definitely ranks as among the most spectacular. My congratulations go out to all those involved in achieving this remarkable feat.”

Drive responsibly!

November 4, 2017

http://www.porschebrooklands.co.uk/about-us/2017/a-guinness-world-record-for-the-porsche-cayenne/a%20guinness%20world%20record%20for%20the%20porsche%20cayenne~~camtune~newsmodel~en

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The Art of Presidential Pay

CEOs of for-profit companies are paid handsomely for their nifty management skills and for creating shareholder value. According to Associated Press study, the median annual CEO pay for S&P 500 companies in 2016 was $11 million (average pay was even higher at $14 million). When compared to the value created by these companies, the pay appears economically insignificant and immaterial. In 2016 alone, nearly $1.5 trillion of shareholder wealth was created by the S&P 500 companies.

What about the pay of the top bosses in nonprofit organizations like academic institutions? Much less. The average pay of a University President is less than $0.5 million. Therefore, S&P-500 CEOs get about 30 times more than a typical University-CEO.

The Art of Presidential Pay

The highest paid academic top gun was not from an Ivy League institution but a leader of an arts college in Georgia. According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2014, Paula Wallace, the president of the Savannah College of Art and Design (say what?), earned a whopping $9.6 million in 2014. That is, the pay was about 20 times a traditional academic presidential pay.

Ms. Wallace earned a base salary of $859,000 and a bonus of $1 million. In addition, the board/trustees of Savannah College of Art and Design voted to pay Ms. Wallace supplementary deferred compensation of $7.5 million as a cumulative reward for her prior 14 years of service (this is in addition to the annual salary she drew over the past 14 years).

Deferred compensation refers to the portion of an employee’s compensation that is set aside to be paid at a later date in the form of retirement plans or pension plans. In most cases, taxes on deferred compensation are delayed until income is paid. In common parlance, deferred compensation is the ability to provide for a “highly prosperous retired life” by leveraging current position and power.

Stellar Savanah College

Ms. Wallace is one of the founders of the college. Her achievements include overseeing enrollment growth, and the expansion of academic majors and branch campuses. According to a consulting firm retained by the arts college in Georgia to approve presidential pay, “the compensation is fitting given her four decades of contribution towards the success of the institution.”

Reality Bites

Tuition, fees, and living expenses can exceed $50,000 a year. Students at this institution collectively received about $115 million in federal student loans. Among nonprofit art and music colleges, students of Savannah College of Art and Design rank among the top quartile for graduation rates and earnings. About two-thirds of full-time students graduate within six years, and their students receiving financial aid reported median earnings of roughly $35,000 a decade after entering.

Scarcely stellar when you consider that a representative student can potential rack-up federal loans of up to $250,000 to get this coveted arts and design degree from Georgia.

Raymond Cotton, a lawyer who advises university boards on presidential pay, called Ms. Wallace’s compensation “..such an outlier in the world of higher education; it’s really incredible.”

Benchmark: Harvard’s Presidential Pay

How does this pay compare to the Presidential pay at country’s leading academic institution with a largest endowment?

Harvard University’s President, Drew Faust, earned a $811,000 salary and received a meagre total compensation package worth $1.2 million.

Social Narrative

Nonprofit organizations are organized for a public or mutual benefit other than generating profit for owners or investors. Because a nonprofit company’s intent is to increase the welfare of society, the government sponsors those objectives by defraying some of the nonprofit’s costs by exempting nonprofit organizations from paying taxes.

If Presidential Pay at academic institutions mimic CEO-pay at S&P 500 companies because academic institutions draw inspiration from for-profit companies, why the big need for subsidy from the federal and state government?

Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil!

Chatham; April 17, 2017

https://www.wsj.com/articles/art-colleges-president-draws-lucrative-pay-package-1488811143

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Imagine: Flagging Spirits!

Romania and Chad are two “sovereign, independent, unitary and indivisible” National States. Separated from each other by the Mediterranean Sea and by the adjoining countries including Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Greece, and Libya, the two countries are most diverse in their economic, social-political, ethnic, religious and racial backgrounds. Yet, the pennant, the umbilical cord bonding the two countries, is identical. Their tri-color flags are indistinguishable!

Imagine, the two countries locked in a competitive sporting duel and you are passionately waving the blue-yellow-red tri-color cheering one country! It may become hard to assess your preferred country.

Design of Flags

Vexillography deals with the art and practice of designing national flags.  A casual inspection of the national flags highlights common underlying attributes unifying most national flag designs;

  • All national flags are rectangular, except for the flag of Nepal
  • Except for Nepal, the width is taller than the height for all national flags
  • Only the national flags of Switzerland and Vatican City are exact squares
  • All national flags are either identical or mirrored, except for the flag of Paraguay
  • All national flags consist of at least two different colors
  • It is common for many flags to feature national symbols, such as coats of arms

Convention for Adoption

The national flag is often, but not always, mentioned or described in a country’s constitution. Its detailed description may be delegated to a flag law passed by the legislative, or even secondary legislation or in monarchies a decree. For most countries, the date of flag adoption is apparent. For others, the task of determining the exact date may be more complex because of unknown or disputed design changes, regime changes, or other geographical changes.

According to the office of the U.N., “…it is up to Member States to select their own flags,” which means there is no internationally recognized governing body delegated with the task of approving and supervising the issuance of flags.

Therefore, it should not come as a complete surprise that two or more countries may have twin sibling flags.

Romanian Tri-Color National Pride

It is historically well-established that dissidents in Romania from 1800s began waving the blue-yellow-red tricolor during protests. Subsequently, a series of monarchical governments used versions of this symbol. In 1949, when the Communists took control of Romania, they tweaked the flag by adding a star, several chaffs of wheat, mountains, trees, a sunrise, and a power line, which was the enforced “Romanian coat of arms.”

As is customary in a communist regime, the input of the native Romanian citizens was not deemed as being necessary! All was well with the flagging spirits until 1989, when during the revolution at Timișoara, Romanian dissidents quite understandably began ripping and tearing out the communist symbols from their flag. For a few revolutionary months, Romania’s de facto flag was the blue-yellow-red tricolor with a big hole in the middle.

Finally, by a decree-Law, on 27 December 1989, the National Salvation Front and of the territorial councils of the National Salvation Front declared that “the national flag is the traditional tricolor of Romania, with the colors laid out vertically, in the following order, starting from the flagpole: blue, yellow, red”.  

Chad Tri-Color National Pride

Chad, a country in North Africa, gained its independence from France on August 11, 1960. The country officially adopted its flag on November 6, 1959. It combines two colors from the French Tricolore (red and blue), and two Pan African colors (red and yellow). Blue represents the sky, hope and agricultural strength of the southern part of the country. Yellow is representative of the country’s northern desert and the sun. Red represents prosperity, unity and the blood shed for independence.

Lennin to Lennon

In essence, Chad and Romania have had identical flags since 1989. Chad government has been protesting to the U.N. declaring that two countries cannot have the same flag. Yet, for the moment, Romania appears unperturbed by this trivial practical resemblance.

You can almost hear the epic Lennon song in the background  

“Imagine there’s no countries, It isn’t hard to do, And no religion too

Imagine all the people living life in peace, you…”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/romania-pilfered-another-nations-flag-designand-its-not-sorry-1489604704

March 23, 2017

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Hamiltonian Hip Hop: Broadway to Wall Street

Giddy up! At more than 21,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has soared by 1,200 points or about 13% since January 2017. If you consider the run-up since February 2016, the stock market has delivered a staggering return of about 30%. The stock market has been on the best winning streak in 25 years.

One fundamental reason for the stock market rally is linked to the growth of Exchange Traded Funds, or ETFs, as retail investors have poured in $124 billion into this type of an investment vehicle in 2017 alone.

State Street Corp.’s SPDR S&P 500 ETF is the market’s oldest, largest and the most-traded security in the world.

Love Thy ETF

Introduced in 1993, ETFs, or Exchange Traded Funds, trade on an exchange like stocks. An ETF is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike actively traded mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold.

ETFs typically have lower fees than mutual funds, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors. Shareholders do not have any direct claim on the underlying investments in the fund, instead, they indirectly own these assets.

According to research firm XTF, there are around 1,800 ETF investment vehicles holding stock worth more than $2.7 trillion. There are no SEC rules governing ETFs which means ETFs are regulated via mutual fund regulation. Just three firms

—     BlackRock Inc.

—     State Street Corp.’s State Street Global Advisors

—     Vanguard Group

manage 80% of ETF assets.

ETF vs Actively Managed Funds

  • ETFs try to track the performance of a particular market benchmark, or “index,” as closely as possible. In contrast, Actively Managed Funds (AMFs) try to outperform their benchmarks and peer group average.
  • ETFs buy all (or a representative sample) of the securities in the benchmark, while AMFs combine research, forecasting, and experience/expertise of a portfolio manager or management team.
  • Index funds tend to be more tax-efficient and have lower expense ratios than actively managed funds because they trade less frequently than AMFs.
  • Although AMFs attempt to beat the market, quite often they may also miss their targets which results in losses for the funds’ investors. In contrast, ETFs are only undertaking the underlying risk of the market benchmark.
  • Most importantly, AMFs typically charge between five and twenty-five times what ETFs charge their investors.

Not surprisingly, the pace of ETF inflows bodes negative news for asset managers. Investors have started pulling their investments from AMFs to ETFs. The largest providers of ETFs have started reducing management fees to attract even more funds. The average annual fee of ETFs bought this year is only $23 for every $10,000 invested, sharply lower than last year. Some ultralow-cost iShares Core funds cost as little as $4 a year for a $10,000 investment, which is can be about 1/25th fraction of the fees charged by most mutual funds.

Given the low-cost structure of ETFs and the raging bull market, $7.5 billion has moved into the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF and $5.4 billion into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF in January 2017 alone!

Hamiltonian Hip Hop and ETFs

Lately, the US stock market has generated staggering returns unmatched by almost any other country. Take for instance the returns generated from an investment in S&P 500 stocks in the last eight years.

  • 2009                26%
  • 2010                15%
  • 2011                2%
  • 2012                16%
  • 2013                32%
  • 2014                14%
  • 2015                1%
  • 2016                12%

If you invested in the S&P 500 from 1928 to 2014, the per annum compound rate of return was 9.8%. Thus, if you invested $100 in 1928, your nest egg would become $346,261 in 2014.

Join and celebrate the US goldilocks economy and consider becoming an ETF shareholder.

Vermont, February 10, 2017

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Spirits of East India Company

Beer is the third most consumed drink after water and tea and its production can be traced back 10,000 years. This popular beverage serves as the esprit de corps for almost every human emotion. We drink beer to rejoice, to recollect, to champion ball games, to forget, to relax, or just to get rowdy.

The production of beer is relatively straightforward—some form of starch is converted into alcohol through a fermentation process using yeast. The most common variation of starch used is malted barley, which is dried germinated barley. Hops are added during the brewing process to inject flavor and bitterness to the drink while acting as a natural preservative. Hops are dried flowers from the same family of vines as cannabis so beer may have some medicinal properties as well.

Lager versus Ale

The two overarching beer categories include ales and lagers. The crucial difference between two beer categories is the quality of yeast used in the fermentation which in turn imparts a distinctive character.

Ales are produced using “top-fermenting” yeast strains, which ferment at the top of the fermentation container. Lagers are generated using “bottom-fermenting” yeasts, which ferment at the bottom of a fermentation container. Ales are traditionally fermented at warmer temperatures (55 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit), while lagers are fermented at much cooler temperatures (38 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit). The dissimilar yeast types and the differential temperatures are a key reason why ales are bitter, darker and fruitier and while lagers are less fruity with a refreshingly clean and crisp taste.

The younger sibling Lager is a modern creation with a maturation age less than 300 years. Ale happens to be the older, more traditional and the distinguished sibling.

British East India Company

In the 18th century, British merchants set up East India Company to trade spices, fine cotton and silk from India. Although the British stationed in India may have preferred darker and sweeter ales, the wealthy traders of British East India Company wanted a more refined and lighter/paler version of the traditional ale to accompany their long voyages to India.

To quench the thirst of the industrial revolution, British beer-producers started a new “pale ale” assembly line with a heavy injection of hops to add a bitter counterpoint to the sweetness of the malt. The added advantage of hops was that it also served as a natural preservative, which meant that the pale ale could last the long voyages to India.

As British interests in India grew, so did the beer market in UK. More and more brewers started making “Ales for the Indian Market” or just “India Pale Ale (IPA).” As IPA conquered taste buds in India, it also spread around the world, turning up in America, Australia and South-East Asia.

IPA in the US

Today, IPAs are particularly popular in the US. Craft brewers are increasingly making IPAs as part of their medley. Bars are also happy to stock an assortment of IPAs. Not surprisingly, to satisfy the discerning palate of the consumer, beer producers and suppliers are able to charge a hefty premium for IPAs. Because of the distinct flavor, a unique bitter taste, a discrete sweetness and color, brewers are able to distinguish their products from other beer selections, which allows them to charge a hefty premium for “differentiated products.”

Get ready to recall the spirits of Jack Sparrow from the Indian Ocean and not from the Caribbean. Cheers!

Helsinki, January 15, 2017

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Mardi Gras Float in Trouble: First NBC

mardigrasIn the absence of major national banks in New Orleans, regional banks have floated the NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) economy. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary First NBC Bank, First NBC Bank Holding Company provides a wide range of financial services in New Orleans, Florida, and Mississippi Gulf Coast with 39 banking offices.

Following Hurricane Katrina, First NBC invested heavily in New Orleans construction projects that included generous tax credits established by federal and state governments. These investments collectively helped propel First NBC to become the city’s largest bank based on assets under the leadership of CEO Ashton Ryan.

Halloween Scare: Stress Test

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions informed First NBC on Oct 11 that the bank is under “troubled condition.”  As troubled bank, it must seek regulatory approval before adding any new directors or senior executives or changing the responsibilities. The bank is also prohibited from increasing its debt, distributing interest on subordinated debt or paying dividends on its stock.

To add to the stress, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) recently declared that First NBC is no longer “well capitalized,” restricting its ability to take on certain deposits and pay interest. First NBC was recently downgraded to junk status by Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc., which specializes in rating smaller lenders. HoldCo Asset Management, which owns the banks’s debt has shorted the bank’s stock and as a way to hedge its risk against a bank default has also publicly questioned the bank’s accounting policies.

Uncle Sam’s Subsidies: Tax Credits

First NBC invested heavily in New Orleans in construction projects following Katrina and thereby benefited from the generous tax credits from federal and state governments. Because the tax credits received by First NBC were more than the taxes being paid, the bank was able to use the unused portion of the tax credits to reduce future tax payments by offsetting future taxes against the unused portion. For instance, if the government gives a $1,000 tax credit to a single parent for raising a child alone, and the parent must pay $800 as federal income taxes based on his/her income, the parent does not pay any taxes for the current period because the tax credit fully offsets the $800 taxes payable for the current year. More importantly, even after the tax offset, the remaining $200 tax credit balance can be used to reduce future taxes.

Accounting rules allow this $200 future tax benefit to be capitalized (i.e., treated as an asset) and booked as a deferred tax benefit. As of the first quarter of 2015, the bank’s deferred tax assets—the benefits from reduction of future taxes—are $247 million, up from $95.8 million a year earlier.

In 2014, the company reported $28.6 million as income before taxes yet it reported a net income of $55.6 million because it had an income tax benefit of $27 million (instead of having an income tax expense which normally reduces net income).

Mardi Gras Float in Trouble: Recanting Previously Issued Statements

First NBC announced in August 2016 that it expects a delay in filing its 2015 Form 10-K (annual report filing with the SEC) because of restatement of previously issued financial results! The prior results included errors because of the following reasons:

  • Use of an inappropriate amortization method in accounting for investments in tax credit (Halloween Hullaballoo)
  • Consolidation of certain investments in Federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit entities because such entities were determined to be variable interest entities in which the Company was the primary beneficiary (Enron Phantom).
  • The result of the consolidation has adverse effect on the financials (Hurricane)

Following the error corrections, the 2014 net income was now being restated (or reduced) by 20% ($55.6 million being revised to $44.7 million). Similarly, the 2013 net income was being restated (or reduced) by 18% ($40.9 million being reduced to $33.6 million). Accumulated earnings for 2012 and prior periods was being reduced by 16% from $59.8 million to $50.3 million. The company in its 2015 10-K stated “We determined that we had insufficient qualified personnel at both the executive management and staff levels with appropriate knowledge, experience and training on accounting and reporting matters, which contributed to the material weaknesses that resulted in the restatement, as well as the inability to timely file this report.”

To make matters worse, the bank was in violation of NASDAQ listing rules because it had not filed its 2016 quarterly statements. To avoid delisting from NASDAQ, First NBC submitted a plan to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules.

In a time-span of less than a year, the stock price of First NBC declined from a high of about $40 to around about $5.30, which is a cyclonic decline of around 86%. More than $600 million in shareholder wealth was destroyed because of the accounting related aggression.  

Grateful Dead Sings Aiko Aiko Ande

Ernst & Young (E&Y), a Big 4 auditor with international reputation and stature, has been the independent auditor of First NBC leading up to the 2015 financial statements. First NBC’s restatement is likely to bring considerable negative publicity, media scrutiny and regulatory intervention for E&Y. It will not be surprising to see class action lawsuits initiated by shareholders to recover losses.

In September 2, 2016, Ernst & Young declined to stand for reappointment as the company’s independent auditor for 2016. Is it a case of too little too late? A restatement is considered an audit failure.

Did E&Y fail the shareholders of First NBC? Only courts and the SEC can render a verdict on this matter. Until then, the accounting profession sings “Aiko Aiko Ande” in Cajun style.

 My spy boy saw you spy boy sittin by the bi-yo

My spy boy told your spy boy, Im gonna set you flag on fi-yo.

I said, hey now, hey now, Aiko aiko all day, jockomo feeno na na nay, jockomo feena nay.

My grandma and your grandma were sitting by the fire

Said my grandma to your grandma, gonna get your tail on fire.

Chatham- Helsinki; October 30, 2016

 

 

 

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Drugs and the Land of Lords

fdaIndia has become a dominating player in the production of generic-drugs particularly targeting the large U.S. market. Indian drug manufacturers account for 40% of generic drugs sold in the U.S. While most Indian pharmaceutical companies continue to make their money selling inexpensive generic drugs, there is a visible change in their strategy over the last few years. Indian generic-drug manufacturers have started competing intensely to develop their own products through heavy R&D spending and finding solutions to many illnesses and diseases.  

Motivated by the desire to produce innovative and patented drugs, Indian pharmaceutical companies have started applying for drug approvals with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (US-FDA) at an unprecedented rate. Approximately, a third of all FDA applications in the last year were submitted India’s multibillion-dollar pharmaceutical industry. A year ago, the growth in application was only 19% which means the growth rate between the two consecutive years has almost doubled.

Why the Change in Strategy?

Generic drug business (production and sales) entails making money through large volume. Margins are low because there is heavy competition from other generic drug producers. Think of grocery stores as an analogy. In contrast, patented drugs generate high returns for the producer because they are the only producer, i.e., volume is high, and margins are high because they act as a monopolist (sole producer). Think of the diamond business and DeBeers as a parallel.

Medical innovation in drugs requires considerably investments in R&D with initial outlays exceeding millions, and sometimes billions, of dollars. However, following the successful development of a drug, a pharmaceutical company must first procure a patent before the drug can become a commercial product.

Patent

The economic idea behind a patent is simple. The government wants the private sector to invest and innovate in the field of medicine and find cure for illnesses. However, because the cost of finding a cure for human ailments can be prohibitively costly, the government offers through a patent a “protection period” for a drug company to sell its drug over a certain period, which is typically 20 years in the U.S.

As a result of the patent, only the pharmaceutical company holding the patent can manufacture the drugs being approved by the FDA. Therefore, in essence the drug manufacturer with a patent is akin to a monopolist, which means it can charge an exorbitant price (think of the recent Mylan case). High prices result in high profits because the cost of production is generally low. The higher profits allow the drug manufacturer to recover the initial investment in R&D and thereafter make a ‘healthy,’ and sometimes super-healthy, return.

Humans benefit, we get to live longer and are able to become more productive, which means that society benefits but all this comes at a step price. Some drugs can cost between $10,000 to $30,000 per dosage (e.g., cure for AIDs or cancer)!

Prominent Manufacturers

India’s largest drugmaker by sales, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., received approval for an eye drop to treat swelling and prevent pain in patients undergoing cataract surgery. In 2014 it received approval for a new injection to treat a rare blood disease known as myelodysplastic syndrome. However, to receive these patent approvals, the company had to invest heavily in R&D. The company’s R&D outlay increased from about $50 in 2011 to about $261 million in 2015, which is more than a 400% increase in a span of 4 years or about 100% annual growth.

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, India’s second-largest drugmaker by sales, received FDA approval for a spray for treating a skin condition called plaque psoriasis, as well as an injection for migraine headaches. The company similar increased in R&D from $50 in 2011 to $253 million in 2015, which again translates into a 100% annual growth.

Lupin increased its R&D spending by 17% to $168 million in 2015. The company is  developing an injection to treat less common cancers and a nasal spray to better deliver off-patent drugs to treat some types of pulmonary diseases. The company’s U.S.-based laboratories in Florida and New Jersey are also working to improve AllerNaze, according to Wall Street Journal.

Cost versus Benefit

Dr. Reddy’s Lab spent about $25 million in developing its migraine injection and was able to get it from concept to market in less than five years so the gestation period can be long. However, the company predicts that it expects to earn more than $100 million in annual sales from the migraine injection and skin spray.

A 20-year patent period means that the sales over the duration of the patent period would generate about $2 billion sales. The “bottom line,” it pays to invest in R&D for a company and switch from generic production to patented products. But, the company must first succeed in its innovation efforts otherwise all the investment is lost, which is the typical risk associated with R&D investments.

Chatham, Feb. 29, 2016; 11.22P

http://www.wsj.com/articles/indian-drugmakers-target-niche-markets-1461024100

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The Joy of Being Wise

joyconnolyJoy Connolly,1 a Professor of Classics and the Dean for Humanities at New York University, has been appointed as the Provost of the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. As the Dean for the Humanities at New York University, Professor Connolly was responsible for about 400 faculty in 30 departments, programs, centers, and institutes. Her primary research interests include Roman republicanism, rhetoric, civic discourse, classical reception, and the role that aesthetic experience plays in the formation of political judgments.

With immense pride and excitement, we welcome Professor Joy Connolly to Graduate Center and to the City University of New York.

The City University of New York (CUNY)

The City University of New York, or CUNY as it is popularly known, is the largest urban university in the United States. CUNY is an integrated system of senior and community colleges, graduate and professional schools, research centers, institutes and consortia. The City University of New York receives funding from New York State and the City of New York. Presently, the CUNY network of colleges and schools provides high-quality, accessible education for more than 274,357 degree seeking students at 24 campuses across New York City.

CUNY faculty includes recipients of the Nobel Prize, the Pulitzer Prize, the National Humanities Medal, the National Medal of Science, the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Rockefeller Fellowship, the Schock Prize, the Bancroft Prize, the Wolf Prize, Grammy Awards, the George Jean Nathan Award for Dramatic Criticism, Guggenheim Fellowships, the New York City Mayor’s Award for Excellence in Science and Technology, the Presidential Early Career Awards for Scientists and Engineers, and memberships in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences. For example, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Laureate in Economics, is a Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of CUNY. Professor Krugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.

CUNY alumni includes an awe-inspiring list of individuals. Some prominent examples include Colin Powell (Former Secretary of State), Barbara Boxer (U.S. Senator from California), Max Kupferberg (Manhattan Project physicist), Ray Romano (TV actor and comedian), Joy Behar (comedian and writer), and Matthew Goldstein (Former Chancellor of CUNY). Refer to the website below for a comprehensive list of CUNY alumni.

http://www2.cuny.edu/alumni/fields-of-excellence/education/

Graduate Center, the City University of New York

Residing within the City University of New York (CUNY), the Graduate Center (GC) is an advanced teaching and research center. With over 35 doctoral and master’s programs of the highest caliber, and 20 research centers, institutes, and initiatives, the GC benefits from highly ambitious and diverse students and alumni. Through its public programs, the GC enhances New York City’s intellectual and cultural life. A distinct advantage for the Graduate Center is that it can draw upon its more than 1,700 faculty from across the CUNY college-campuses and scientific institutions dispersed throughout New York City.

Devoted exclusively to graduate education, the Graduate Center provides rigorous academic training in the humanities, sciences, and social sciences. GC remains the principal doctoral-granting institution of the CUNY system. As of June 2013, the CUNY PhD in Business is offered jointly by the Graduate Center and Baruch College.

Baruch College, the City University of New York

If you want a business degree, graduate or undergraduate, you must walk about 10 blocks south and head for the CUNY’s crown jewel, or its Kohinoor, Baruch College. Baruch College has about 18,000 students with around 80% majoring in business, which makes Baruch College the largest business school in the U.S.

With a legislatively mandated mission, the CUNY education system acts “as a vehicle for the upward mobility of the disadvantaged in the City of New York … ensuring equal access and opportunity.. to students, faculty and staff  from all ethnic and racial groups.” 

In spirit, the CUNY education-system embodies the much revered Finnish education system!

 Helsinki, August 17, 2016.

 1Irish meaning of the name Connolly is wise or brave.

 

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Academics and Central Banks

raghuram_rajan--621x414A central bank is a public institution charged with managing a country’s monetary policy and regulating member banks. The main objective of a central bank is price stability. By statute, many countries also require their central banks to support full employment. Governments often appoint influential academics as the Chair/Governor of the Central Bank. Ben Bernanke, Professor at Princeton University, served as the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank in the U.S., from 2006 to 2014. Stanley Fisher, a prominent macro-economist from MIT, served as the Governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 to 2013. An academic staff at Trinity College Dublin, Philip Lane was appointed the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland in 2015.

In 2013, India’s then Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, invited Raghuram Rajan, a high profile financial economist and a Professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business, to become the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India for a three-year term. When Dr. Rajan took over the reins of India’s monetary policy, India was grappling with high consumer price inflation, industrial slowdown, a free falling rupee, and a widening current account deficit.

Key achievements

During his short tenure span of three-years, Dr. Rajan is credited to have

  • Strengthened the Indian currency.
  • Boosted investor sentiments.
  • Contained the current account deficit from around 5% to around 1.9% by levying added import duty on gold.
  • Reduced inflation to 8% from 11%.
  • Established the “Joint Lenders Forum” to foster greater coordination among bankers and discuss every loan decision above Rs. 5 Crore in forum so that bad loans can be prevented.
  • Forced the recognition of non-performing loans (bad loans).

Non-Performing Loans

Mr. Rajan’s priority was to purge the banking system of bad loans by forcing banks to remove non-performing loans from their balance sheet. The de-recognition of bad loads forebodes bad news for banks because they would need to recapitalize the balance sheet if their equity cushion fell below the mandated levels. Moreover, banks would be forced to call out the bad players.

In country that wants to open up the economy, India has 27 government-controlled banks which account for 70% of the country’s banking assets. Much of the bad bank loans are confined to India’s state-owned banks. According to the Economist, nearly 17% of all loans need to be written off. Therefore, the problems of bad loans are quire severe.

Colliding Politics and Personalities

The Modi government, which came to power with a huge mandate in 2014, has had major disagreements with Dr. Rajan’s economic policies. The current government is more ‘dovish’ and prefers a low interest rate environment to spur domestic investments while electing to ignore the risk of higher inflation from pursing an aggressive monetary policy. In contrast, Mr. Rajan was more ‘hawkish’ on inflation and, as a result, he was more focused on controlling inflation by keeping the interest rates high even at the cost of choking potential investments. Also, the Central Bank’s aggressive policy to recognize bad loans may have contributed to the disagreement between the government and the governor of central bank.

The current BJP party is led by a charismatic leader who is predisposed to governing with an iron hand. The top gun of India’s Central Bank was also a high-powered intellectual, a renowned economist, and a man with strong economic convictions. Fireworks are inevitable!

The Outcome

After some modest ideological confrontations with the BJP party, Dr. Rajan abruptly decided to step down as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and not seek a second term. CNBC deems Mr. Rajan as the world’s best central banker because of his commitment to structural reforms and because of his ability to stabilize prices and exchange rate during his short term. Did he deliver? The market believes so!

Unfortunately, India is the big loser in this Bollywood-style drama. The country is deprived of the services of a financial superstar who could have guarded financial markets and helped the Indian government pursue pro-market reforms.

Helsinki, July 25, 3.36P

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21699911-proposed-reforms-indias-financial-system-are-welcome-insufficient-banks-and-bureaucrats

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Can Migration Explain Britain’s Decision to Exit EU?

BrexitNearly 52% of British citizens (17.4 million) voted in the ‘referendum’ on Thursday to exit the European Union. The outcome is startling because, from all accounts, the economic cost to Britain in the short- and long-term is expected to be staggeringly high. In less than 3 days, the global financial markets lost more than $3 trillion. During this period, the FTSE lost more than 100 billion pounds. The British pound, which was trading at an exchange rate of around $1.7 about a year ago is trading today at around $1.35.

The worst may not be over. Many sophisticated analysts believe that the pound could fall to as low as $1.10 within a year and it is projected that the U.K economy might hit a recession with a precipitous decline in property prices.

Why did the majority of the voting electorate elect to exit the EU and embrace large economic costs? One common explanation is linked to the sustained inflow of migrants from other EU countries.

Migration Statistics

Statistics disproves this theory. In 2015, the inflow of foreign nationals into Great Britain was 630,000. The increase in foreign population in 2015 as a percentage of Britain’s population, which is around 65 million, is less than 0.01%. Most economists would consider such an increase as a rounding error.

Between 1990 and 2015, Britain’s population grew from 57 million to 65 million, which translates into a modest increase of less than 1% per annum. Again, this small magnitude of the inflow of foreign nationals into Britain is unlikely to drum up mass hysteria among British citizens. Granted, the politicians have exploited the foreign migration issue to harness their individual political careers. However, the migration numbers from the census bureau do not support the casual observation that migration is a key factor driving the British anger.

If the scale of ‘legal’ migration fails to provide a compelling narrative why the majority of British nationals, principally the English, chose to exit the EU, there must be other persuasive economic explanations why 17 million rational British individuals didn’t hesitate to marry into an economic uncertainty.

Factor Price Equalization Theory

The Nobel Laureate in economics, Paul Samuelson, wrote his theory of “factory price equalization” in 1948. His theory might provide deeper insights into Britain’s current dilemma.

The Theory: According to factor price equalization theory, the prices of identical factors of production (typically labor and capital) will be equalized across countries as a result of international trade in commodities. Thus, when two countries have a free trade agreement, even without free mobility of labor, any differential in wage rate (price of labor) and rent of capital (interest rate) between two trading countries is expected to slowly dissipate. With the advent of free mobility of labor, as in the case of EU-Shengen countries, the factor price equalization process converges rapidly.  

Wage Disparity

Anecdotal evidence suggests that much of the migration of EU nationals into the U.K. has been mostly from Eastern Europe, which is typically identified as having depressed wages. For instance, according to World Bank statistics, the average monthly wage rate of Poland is €430, for the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) it is €380, for Hungary it is €358, for Romania it is €279, and for Bulgaria it is €215. For some Western European countries like Spain and Portugal the wage rates are also quite low (around €600).

In sharp contrast, the average monthly wage rate of Great Britain is around €1,550. Thus, the average wage rate of U.K is about 3 to 5 times larger than the wages of the migrant countries.

Economic Outcomes

  • Negative outcomes
  1. Wages in the host country are expected to decline as new migrants from lower wage-rate countries provide their services at a lower price in the U.K. The influx of competition injects considerable downward pressure on the wage rate of the host country. Unfortunately, U.K. workers must bear the brunt of this cost. In the absence of any barriers to entry in the labor market, i.e., specialized degrees or technical skills, wages of the host country will decline. Typically, “blue collar” workers who do not have a comparative advantage are most affected by migration. In contrast, “white collar” workers remain unaffected because migration does not affect competition in this sector.  
  2. Depending on sector specific labor migration, the abundance of labor force will also lead to some loss of jobs. Again, the job loss is expected to be confined to the blue collar working class because of fierce competition and limited growth opportunities in this sector.

The combination of job losses and a decline in wages gives rise to public discontent, anger, and resentment. This resentment is likely to be confined to working class. This is a strategic reason why the voting pattern in the referendum can be explained by the level, or lack, of education. The more affluent people or the more educated people would vote against an exit while those with lower levels of education or having less financial security would vote in favor or an exit.

  • Positive outcomes

Economists often underscore the gigantic economic benefits of migration. Yes, wages/rates decline with migration but it spurs investment, which in turn leads to more jobs. Consumers always benefit from migration and trade because of lower prices.

The Politics of Winner and Losers

A fundamental human natural law is that there are winners and losers in any society. An optimal and emancipated society aspires to minimize the number of losers while maximizing the number of winners. Judging from the referendum, a disproportionally small segment of the U.K population appropriated much of the gains from being part of the European Union, while a large segment of the population lost because of the union.

The U.K experience is a reminder that gains from trade, or common markets, must accrue to all strata of society. Otherwise, there will be social unrest or perverse outcomes that are to the detriment of the country’s long term economic welfare.

Migration issue is a sensitive topic in the U.S. as well where the discussion centers around illegal immigration. Whether the benefits of migration accrue to the majority of the citizens of the host country will decide whether ultimately host countries become more welcoming towards migration (illegal or legal).

At the end of the day, we are all migrants. Some migrated recently, while others migrated a while back.

Helsinki, July 1, 2016; 9.59P

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